Hope Valley, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

344
FXUS61 KBOX 111045
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
645 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions Today and Thursday with above normal
temperatures, then trending near seasonable for Friday. We then
enter into a cooler and more unsettled weather pattern again for
the weekend. High pressure brings dry weather for Monday, then
turning unsettled again Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

* Warm and dry today with comfortable humidity and modest breezes

Broad low amplitude upper trough will settle over New Eng today
with high pres building over mid Atlc region. Patchy stratus
and fog will lift by sunrise, otherwise sunshine will mix with
diurnal CU this afternoon as steep low level lapse rates develop
with shallow moisture below the inversion. A few of the CAMs
try to develop a few spot showers over the interior this
afternoon, but current thinking is sub- cloud layer will be dry
enough to preclude any showers with better chance to the north.
Warming temps aloft and sunshine will result in a much warmer
day today. 925 mb temps 18-19C will support highs 80-85, but 70s
near the south coast and higher terrain.

Risk for dangerous rip currents will be greatest over south coast
Nantucket beaches, with more a moderate risk for rest of south
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Dry and mild tonight
* Breezy, warm and dry Thursday

Quiet weather tonight with dry W-SW flow. Under mainly clear skies
lows will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

On Thu, passing northern stream shortwave across Canada will push a
cold front south across northern New Eng and into SNE during the
afternoon. Axis of higher PWATs will push south across SNE but
westerly pre-frontal flow will limit low level convergence and
instability axis is SW of SNE so expecting dry weather. Another warm
day with low level temps suggesting a few degrees warmer than today
with highs low-mid 80s and possibly some upper 80s CT-RI-SE MA, but
low humidity as dewpoints mix out into the low 50s during peak
heating. It will be breezy as well mixed boundary layer supports
west wind gusts to 20-30 mph with a few higher gusts over higher
terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Mainly dry and warm Friday

* Cool and wet weather Saturday  and Sunday

* Mainly dry and warmer again Monday

Zonal flow aloft will lead to a rather unsettled pattern for Friday
through the Weekend. However, guidance is still struggling to
resolve the weakly forced features, leading to a continued low
confidence forecast this weekend.  Friday has the best chances of
staying dry with subtle height rises and weak mid-level ridging.
High temps rise into the upper 70s to low 80s with localized sea
breezes keeping the coasts closer to the low 70s.  Better forcing
and moisture arrive just in time to bring us another rainy Saturday.
 Without a stronger shortwave moving through, guidance has been
showing mixed signals between a total washout or hit-and-miss
showers.  Ensemble systems favor hit-or-miss showers, as 58% of the
GEFS, ENS, & GEPS have less than a half-inch QPF.  27% of the
ensembles have .05 to 1 inch of QPF, with 10% having greater than an
inch.  That leaves only 5% of the ensemble members showing a dry
forecast for Saturday.  High temperatures on Saturday are likely to
struggle to top 70F, possibly staying in the low 60s.  Sunday may
end up as a drier day than Saturday, as much of the shortwave energy
gets shunted south ahead of a more amplified shortwave dropping
south towards the Great Lakes.  Either way, Sunday will still be
cool and cloudy due to the onshore flow.  High temperatures are
likely to struggle to top 70F again.

High pressure builds in for Monday, bringing a brief reprieve from
the cloudy and wet conditions before unsettled weather returns yet
again for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.  High temperatures are
expected to gradually rise from the low to mid-70s on Monday and
Tuesday, then increase to the low to mid-80s by Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update...

Today...High confidence.

VFR. WSW-SW wind 10-20 kt. Smoke may cause hazy skies and
possibly some light visby reductions this afternoon

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. W wind 5-10 kt. Increasing westerly winds aloft will lead
to wind shear concerns

Thursday...High confidence.

VFR. W wind gusts 20-30 kt developing.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence.

VFR with breezy SW winds today. Smoke could cause some light
visby reductions this afternoon. Winds at the surface diminish
with sunset, but winds aloft increase from the west up to 30-40
knots

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

Radiation fog possible around the terminal this morning, burning
off quickly after sunrise. VFR today with SW winds around 10
knots. Smoke could cause light visby reductions this afternoon.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Friday: VFR.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. SHRA likely.

Saturday Night through Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible.
Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Thursday: High Confidence.

Persistent SW winds through the period, Speeds 10-20 kt through
tonight with some 25 kt gusts possible Thu over nearshore waters. 5
ft seas over southern waters will gradually subside this afternoon.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rain showers likely.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MAZ024.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/KP
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...KJC/KP
MARINE...KJC/KP